Utah Jazz vs. Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game

As the Utah Jazz and Denver Nuggets get set to face off for the third time in under two weeks, the Jazz will have to make some key adjustments from their most recent contest if they hope to arise victorious.

The Utah Jazz and the Denver Nuggets are getting quite familiar with one another as the two teams have already played one another twice and will be facing off in their third contest in less than two weeks on Saturday night. So far these divisional rivals have split the season series one apiece with the home team winning in blowout fashion on both occasions.

Both teams had the misfortune of playing on the other’s home court on the second night of a back-to-back and the same will be the case once again for the Denver Nuggets as they’ll come into Salt Lake after a 128-110 home loss to Houston on Friday night.

Following the defeat, Denver dropped to 7-12 on the season as they continue to struggle to convert their young talent and high potential into wins. However, one bright spot for the Nuggets is that they’ll be coming into Saturday’s contest as the league’s leader in rebounding, an area in which they’ve been simply exceptional.

However, as good as they’ve been at controlling the boards on the season, the Nuggets have struggled in many other areas, most notably defense and turnovers.

Denver is currently 27th in the league averaging 15.7 turnovers per game and 26th in the league in opponent points per game as they’ve surrendered 108.7 points per contest. These troublesome stats were in full display in their loss on Friday as they allowed Houston to shoot a scorching 50.6 percent from the field and 45.9 percent from deep while losing the turnover battle 16-11.

Thus, given the Nuggets’ struggles, the Jazz should be more than capable of defending their home court and coming away with a win to take a 2-1 series lead. However, with recent injuries and issues of their own, the Jazz will have to be careful that they don’t overlook a crafty Denver team and instead put great emphasis on these key areas.

Key Match-up – Gordon Hayward and Danilo Gallinari

This was the key match-up that I had selected prior to the first contest between Utah and Denver and it was one that Gordon Hayward won heartily. Despite inefficient nights from both players, Hayward outscored Gallinari 25 to 13.

Nevertheless, it wasn’t enough to lead the Jazz to victory as Gallinari and the rest of the Nuggets squad eventually prevailed 105-91. In these two teams’ second contest, Gallinari was out with a thigh injury. Therefore, with his return to action, I expect another fun duel between him and Jazz star Gordon Hayward.

There’s no questioning that Gallinari is an exceptional player and arguably the best on this Nuggets team. However, the Jazz did a good job against him last time they faced him and Hayward seems to have an edge in his strength and ability to get to the basket.

And with the Jazz potentially facing injuries once again to their starting backcourt of Rodney Hood and George Hill, Utah will need Hayward to step up in a big way and shut down Gallinari once again if they’re to come away with the victory.

Key Stat – Turnovers

As I mentioned previously, turnovers have been a big issue for the struggling Nuggets as they average nearly 16 per game. The Jazz on the other hand have been quite buttoned up as they’re currently fifth in the league at just 11.9 turnovers per game.

However, they didn’t do a great job taking care of the ball in their previous contest against the Heat as they lost the turnover battle 11-6. True, 11 turnovers is under their season average, but they were extremely costly miscues, especially considering that they ended up suffering a narrow one-point loss, as Miami was able to convert nearly every turnover into points.

Especially if George Hill misses this contest once again, Utah will have to be extra careful to make sure they’re taking care of the ball and keeping their offense flowing smoothly. Denver is an up-tempo team that will absolutely decimate the Jazz if they’re allowed easy points off of turnovers throughout the night.

The Jazz’s transition defense was putrid against Miami in Thursday’s game, so while that needs to be shored up regardless, committing less turnovers should allow the Jazz to naturally improve in that area as well, something they’ll need to do versus a Denver offense that is constantly on the move.

Key Performer – Rudy Gobert

Rudy Gobert took advantage of a young and less than formidable Denver frontcourt the last time these two teams met and had himself a monster game. Gobert finished with 19 points and 13 rebounds to go along with two blocks.

And with exception to a rather disappointing performance against the Heat, Gobert has been on a tear recently. In the four games prior to the match-up against Miami, he averaged 15.3 points and 13.5 rebounds.

And one great thing about Rudy so far this season has been his ability to bounce back after tough games. Each time he’s scored six or less points in a game, he’s followed up his next contest with an impressive double-figure scoring performance.

This bodes very well for a Jazz team that will have a great advantage in the paint anyway and that will need some meaningful production from their starting center with the possible absences of Hood and Hill.

Prediction – Jazz 97, Nuggets 92

While I pinned the Jazz to win this game with relative ease in my week preview, the never-ending carousel of injuries has made the outcomes of their games anyone’s guess. The Miami Heat game was one that the Jazz should have expected to win and even with all the injuries, they had a great chance to do so. Nevertheless, in the end they fell short.

Thus, while logic says that Utah should be able to come away with a victory against a tired and struggling Nuggets team, there’s really no guarantees with this Jazz squad. If at least one of Hood and Hill is back in the mix, which I think will be the case, then the Jazz should be able to scrape by on their home court and come away with the win. Therefore, I’ve slotted them at a 97-92 victory, which is much less convincing than I had originally predicted.

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However, as we saw in Thursday’s contest, the Jazz have a hard time finding enough offensive firepower when both of their starting guards are sidelined. Despite tying a franchise record for threes made in a game, Utah went through long stretches without scoring that eventually doomed their chances.

If they find themselves struggling in the same way against Denver, this game could very well turn out just like the teams’ first meeting with the Nuggets running the Jazz out of the building.

Hopefully Utah will be feeling a little healthier, have a defense that’s ready to stop the transition game, display an offense that can take care of the ball and receive a big performance in the paint out of Rudy Gobert. They’ll likely need a combination of each of these things if they hope to redeem their loss on Thursday and come away with a win in Saturday’s match-up.

All stats courtesy of NBA.com and ESPN.com