Utah Jazz: Managing Preseason Predictions, Expectations

At the end of the preseason, we consume team previews and predictions. But what really matters for the Utah Jazz?

Next week the Cleveland Cavaliers will be sporting new rings and raising their first banner. The national tease that is preseason is almost over. Those of us who crave basketball have been eating up every prediction, team preview and post we can get our hands on. Everyone loves their team and is excited to see what comes next.

I’ve done my best to contribute to the optimism that surrounds the Utah Jazz. ESPN’s Zach Lowe predicted 50-plus wins for the team, which prompted my first blog on this site. Now, Five Thirty Eight has run their simulations of the year. They project the Jazz to finish with 51 wins.

I’ve already written about my belief that winning 10-11 more games from last season can be as simple as scoring four more points per game while maintaining last year’s defensive performance.

But no two years are alike and its important to weed out the noise and focus on what matters. I decided to look at Five Thirty Eight and see what last year’s predictions were compared to the actual results. What can team expect when they see the projected numbers?

What I found is a mixed bag.

Team	538 Rank	Final Rank	Final Wins	Final Loss	538 Wins	538 Loss	Delta
Cavaliers	1	3	57	25	63	19	6
Warriors	2	1	73	9	60	22	-13
Thunder	3	5	55	27	58	24	3
Spurs	4	2	67	15	57	25	-10
Clippers	5	6	53	29	56	26	3
Rockets	6	17	41	41	52	30	11
Grizzlies	7	15	42	40	50	32	8
Celtics	8	9	48	34	49	33	1
Bulls	9	16	42	40	48	34	6
Pelicans	10	25	30	52	45	37	15
Hawks	11	8	48	34	46	6	-2
Jazz	12	19	40	42	45	37	5
Raptors	13	4	56	26	44	38	-12
Wizards	14	18	41	41	41	41	0
Mavericks	15	14	42	40	38	44	-4
Kings	16	21	33	49	38	44	5
Suns	17	27	23	59	39	43	16
Hornets	18	10	48	34	39	43	-9
Blazers	19	12	44	38	36	46	-8
Pacers	20	11	45	37	38	44	-7
Heat	21	7	48	34	37	45	-11
Pistons	22	13	44	38	37	45	-7
Magic	23	20	35	47	36	46	1
Bucks	24	23	33	49	34	48	1
Nuggets	25	22	33	49	29	53	-4
Timberwolves	26	26	29	53	25	57	-4
Knicks	27	24	32	50	25	57	-7
Lakers	28	29	17	65	22	60	5
Sixers	29	30	10	72	22	60	12
Nets	30	28	21	61	22	60	1

There are several reasons for the variances between the preseason predictions and the final results.

First off, no one could have ever predicted the historic run the Golden State Warriors were about to go on. Frankly any other year and the San Antonio Spurs would have been considered one of the greatest Spurs teams of all time. Injuries and trades explain some of the sliding from preseason to end of year, but what I wanted to look at was what was predicted correctly.

Team	538 Rank	Final Rank	Final Wins	Final Loss	538 Wins	538 Loss	Delta
Hawks	11	8	48	34	46	6	-2
Wizards	14	18	41	41	41	41	0
Celtics	8	9	48	34	49	33	1
Magic	23	20	35	47	36	46	1
Bucks	24	23	33	49	34	48	1
Nets	30	28	21	61	22	60	1
Thunder	3	5	55	27	58	24	3
Clips	5	6	53	29	56	26	3

Narrowing the table down to just the teams that were picked within three wins of their projected totals, you can see several trends.

The first thing I notice is consistency. All of these teams had very similar rosters from the previous year. I imagine one of the harder parts of predicting team successes via simulations is mixing in free agents and high draft picks and not knowing how they will mix in with the existing players.

With the majority of these teams returning their core teams from the year before, the software was able to predict somewhat accurately.

Good news for Utah fans as the core from last year remains intact.

Secondly, coaching in these situations all carried over from the previous year. The exception is the Oklahoma City Thunder. However, it did seem that Scott Brooks wasn’t all to blame for the oft-criticized late-game play calls as Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook roughly ran the same isolation plays with Billy Donovan that they ran with Brooks.

Still, consistency is what I notice when I see what teams the simulations can predict most correctly.

It’s important to not get too far ahead of ourselves before any games are played, especially when Gordon Hayward is currently in a splint and unable to catch a basketball. Derrick Favors’ knee could get worse or Boris Diaw’s espresso machine could break. The Houston Rockets were coming off of a trip to the conference finals and chemistry issues brought the team down from within.

There are a multitude of reasons for teams failing to meet expectations. However, the reasons Five Thirty Eight was able to accurately predict the teams I listed above are all the same components that make up this Utah team. Consistent roster, consistent coaching and a natural progression of young players.

The free agent acquisitions add to the stability of the roster and improved flexibility of lineups.

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Coaches admit that they don’t play their real game schemes or lineups in the preseason. That makes it difficult to base expectations on play so far. Preseason is the greatest hype machine there is for any sport; everyone is tied for first place. No one is disappointed yet, but that will come. Jazz fans know the heartache of disappointment very well. But the reasoning behind the hype is solid. There is a reason so many people are excited and this is going to be fun. The NBA is as popular as its ever been and I can’t wait for this regular season.

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Managing Utah Jazz Preseason Predictions and Expectations

By Drew Mackay | Oct 21, 2016

At the end of the preseason, we consume team previews and predictions. But what really matters for the Utah Jazz?

More from The J-Notes