Gordon Hayward’s Season Eight Games In

Nov 5, 2014; Salt Lake City, UT, USA; Utah Jazz guard

(20) shoots the game-winning shot over Cleveland Cavaliers forward

(13) during the second half at EnergySolutions Arena. The Jazz won 102-100. Mandatory Credit: Russ Isabella-USA TODAY Sports

Coming in to the season many fans had reservations about Gordon Hayward getting a $63 Million contract in the offseason. People said Gordon wasn’t worth that amount. They said he wasn’t enough of a ‘go-to guy’ to get that much.

Hayward clearly heard those complaints and has set out to prove everyone wrong. He is having an absolutely amazing season. Up to this point in the season it is easy to argue that he has been a top ten player in this league. There is very little that you could actually criticize Gordon for right now. We now have a sample size of eight games, or 10% of the season. This is a very small sample size, but it’s what we have.  So, let’s dig into Gordon’s numbers.

Basic Stats

Looking at Gordon Hayward’s stats this season, there is a lot to talk about. Just about everything you would like to see go up, has. Fans have to be pleased seeing Hayward scoring close to 20 points per game. That is a 3.2 point increase from last season. That is enough to lift him from his 47^th most points per game rank last year to 25^th this season.

What is really excited about Hayward’s scoring rate right now is the increase in efficiency. Even though Hayward has increased his points per game he is takings 0.5 less shots a game. You can see that his field goal percentage is up nearly 9% and his three point percentage is up 6%. Where he has really increased his efficiency is in his two point field goals. Last year he shot 45.3% on shots inside the three point line. This year he is up to 61.0%.

Hayward’s assists have stayed at the same rate, which rates him as 7^th among non-point guards. He has increase his rebounds by 1.2 boards a game, which is likely due to the strength he gained this offseason. We also see that Gordon is turning the ball over less and his foul rate is at a career low.

Advanced Stats

The advanced stats are where we really see the beauty in Hayward’s season thus far. Let’s first look at Player Efficiency Rating, or PER. League average is 15.0. Gordon Hayward comes in at 24.68. This is enough to have him ranked as the 10^th most efficient player in the NBA.

Digging a little deeper we can look at Estimated Wins Added. EWA is essentially the estimated number of wins a player adds to a team’s season total above what a ‘replacement player’ would produce.

If you look at the top 20 in EWA last year you see that every single one of these players made the all-star team, or justifiably should have. This stat has always passed the “eye test” for me. So, where does Gordon come in on the EWA ranks this year?

Hayward is currently tied for 2^nd with James Harden and Stephen Curry. Only Anthony Davis has had a better EWA. It’s pretty amazing that Gordon in able to be ranked that high while having a usage rate that is about 30% lower than that of Harden’s.

Next, let’s look at True Shooting Percentage. TS% is basically what a player’s shooting percentage would be if we accounted for free throws and 3-pointers. Hayward currently ranks 3^rd among small forwards at 65.2%. Last year he was at 52.0%. To put that number in comparison, Kyle Korver led all non-centers in TS% last year at 65.3%. There is no way Hayward can keep this number up, but he has clearly been much more efficient than last year.

Looking at the new SportsVU stats that the NBA implemented last year, we can learn a couple more things about Hayward.

• He is currently tied at 10^th in the league for most miles traveled per game at 2.5.
• Gordon is shooting 50% on pull up jumpers.
• Gordon is 3^rd in the NBA for most passes per game by a non-point guard.
• Gordon is shooting 50% off of driver.
• He averages 5.6 points per game off drives, which is 11^th best in the NBA.

Shot Chart

Looking at Gordon Hayward’s 2013-2014 shot chart, it’s easy to see he had a bad year shooting the ball. He shot poorly from 3 and he was just average in the midrange where he shot 39.4% of his shots. Only 34% of his shots came in the paint, where he shot 49.5%.

Flash forward to this year’s shot chart, and it looks like a completely different player.   Hayward is only using 23.1% of his shots in the midrange and is shooting 70.8% in those situations. That is a huge improvement as the midrange is the least efficient shot you can take. Hayward has also shown improvement in the paint. He is taking 35.7% of his shots in the paint and is shooting 54.1% in such opportunities.  Much of this can be contributed to his added strength.  Hayward also seems to have added a little bit of attitude.  I mean when did he dunk like this last year?  He certainly never stared anyone down like that after a dunk.

The rest of Hayward’s attempts, or 40.6%, are coming from beyond the three point line. Hayward is taking better shots and is hitting them.  The fact he is taking better shots is demonstrated clearly in this next graphic.

Hayward is not forcing his shots.  He is getting open ones and nailing them when he gets them.  If Gordon continues to get 59.4% of his shots on open looks there is no reason to believe he wont keep this up.

In The Clutch

You can’t talk about Hayward’s improvement this season without mentioning his work in the clutch. To date Hayward is shooting 66.7% in clutch situations! This is something that fans have always wanted to see. Last year Jazz fans wanted Hayward to step up in the big moments, and this year he has done that. Including giving us what was the most memorable moment in post Deron Williams Jazz History.

What’s to Come?

Gordon Hayward may not be able to keep this level play up for the entire year, but history sure points that direction.  In Hayward’s career he has increased his production as they season progresses.  Before the All-Star break Hayward has shot 42.3% from the field and 33.% from three in his career.  What do his numbers  look like post All-Star break?  46.0% and 40.9% from three.  TS% goes from 53.4% to 58.0%.

It is hard to imagine Hayward increasing his TS% with his current 65.2%, but this does show that he may be able to continue to play near this level.  If he does, it is not implausible to think coaches may be voting Hayward into the 2015 All-Star game.