Projecting Utah Jazz Player Peaks
Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
A good rule of thumb in attempting to determine when an NBA player will peak statistically is to go by NBA minutes played, rather than age. The age a player entered the NBA can vary by a few years, depending on college or foreign years played, for instance.
Obviously, in some cases of projecting the peak and subsequent fall-off, a player may have played several thousand minutes as a professional elsewhere already, as in the case of Manu Ginobili, throwing a wrench into figures. But for the most part, going by NBA minutes is the more accurate way to measure.
Generally speaking, an NBA player will peak statistically at about 15,000 total NBA minutes played, maintain around that level until approximately 30,000 NBA minutes played, then begin to decline, falling off the edge at about 40,000 NBA minutes.
With Steve Nash‘s career looking over, I hopped over to BasketballReference to see if his career followed the basic arc.
The first year Nash led the NBA in assists was 2004-05, with 11.5 per game. This was also the first time in Nash’s NBA career he averaged over 50% shooting from the field — an astounding feat for any guard or perimeter player. He also shot .431 from three and added 15.5 points per game.
Nash came into 2004-05 with 15,696 regular season NBA minutes under his belt, and would lead the NBA in assists per game for the first time, and for five of the next seven years. Over this seven year span he averaged 17 PPG and 11 APG. Nash’s career averages are 14 PPG and 8.5 APG.
He also continued to hit field goals at a clip over 50% for six straight years starting in 2004-05, just missing a seventh straight at .492, while shooting 44% from three. Elite of the elite numbers.
And he also played another 15,000 NBA minutes over that seven-year span of top notch play, putting his NBA minutes total at 31,388 by the end of 2010-11.
That’s precisely when he began to cool off, slowly declining until his body finally gave up on him this season, very near the aforementioned 40K mark at 38,069 regular season NBA minutes.
There’s only a couple-three players in the history of the NBA that have bucked the total minutes trend: Kobe Bryant, Karl Malone, with Tim Duncan currently creeping up on the pair’s unreal longevity of elite play at an advanced NBA age. These three are superhuman freaks, obviously, having played an astounding total of 139,538 elite NBA minutes to date.
So where are the current crop of Utah Jazz starters at in relation to their statistical NBA peaks?
Total NBA Career Minutes, 2013-14 NBA Season Notable Averages
• Gordon Hayward: 8,137 total NBA regular season minutes, averaged 16 PPG, 5 RPG, 5 APG, 1.4 SPG
• Derrick Favors: 6,899 NBA min, 13 PPG, 9 RPG, 1 APG, 1.5 BPG, 52% FG
• Alec Burks: 4,269 NBA min, 14 PPG, 3 RPG, 3 APG, 35% 3FG
• Enes Kanter: 4,090 NBA min, 12 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 1 APG, 49% FG
• Trey Burke: 2,262 NBA min, 13 PPG, 3 RPG, 6 APG, 1.9 TO, 90% FT
Hayward and Favors are merely halfway to their peak as NBA players, and no other long-term player projected to be a Jazzman is even close to a statistical crest. All of these projected starters for the upcoming regular season have put up excellent preseason numbers, showing areas of improvement in the new system.
Burke’s shooting has shown vast improvement already in a new Snyder System designed to open up the floor with spacing and get them open looks, Trey going 17-31 from three in preseason. Hayward’s shot has been falling at a far greater rate than last season too with open looks, and he and Burks came away from the NBA preseason as steals leaders. Meanwhile, Kanter showed an array of offensive moves with hints of Kareem to a little Dream Shaking. He will be a very difficult cover this year.
Quin Snyder’s starting five look like an NBA starting five that could find some success this season, with great potential for the future. Worries about Burke & Burks ability to shoot coming out of college have been alleviated somewhat, and although Alec didn’t hit a preseason three until the final tune-up, we know he has the ability to knock them down at an acceptable rate already. He’ll find them in the flow as the season and system progresses and he’s forced to keep defenses honest more often as scouting reports circulate.
To bring it full circle, while Trey Burke‘s minutes seem minuscule to this point in the grand scheme of things, let us remember that Steve Nash didn’t come close to playing 2K minutes in an NBA season until his fifth year in the league. And he turned out a-okay.
These Jazz youngsters aren’t even close to realizing their full potential yet. Too often, fans and media blurt out “Well, we know what we have in him already. Let’s move on.” The reality is, we don’t really know what we have in a given player for many years. And even more NBA minutes.
Take former Jazzman Paul Millsap for example, if you’re not yet convinced. He just had his best season as an NBA player, after being jettisoned from the Jazz in favor of the youth the fanbase had been clamoring for, making the All-Star Game for the first time.
Drafted by the Jazz, Millsap played 14,821 NBA minutes before moving on to the Atlanta Hawks, leaving fans with just one example of seller’s remorse in Utah.
At the end of Gordon Hayward’s current three year contract with the Jazz, with a player option fourth, playing a very realistic 2,500 minutes a season, he’ll be at 15,637 total NBA minutes.
By the time Derrick Favors’ current four-year contract is up in Utah he’ll have around 15,699 NBA minutes played under his belt, if he plays only 2,200 minutes per season.
That’s when we’ll really know what we have in that pair. When they’ll really be peaking. Based on what we’ve seen so far, it should be a monumental statistical mountain scaled by then.