NBA Draft Lottery: How Odds Increase With Each Pick
A lot of speculation goes on during this time of year regarding the NBA Draft Lottery. Especially among fans of teams who have a chance to win the lottery. It seems that every year at least one lucky team that beats the odds and wins the lottery, or at least moves into the top three. For the Jazz staying in the top four is crucial, as I see the top-tier of players, in no particular order, being: Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker, Joel Embiid, and Dante Exum. If the Jazz drop at all they will still get a very solid player as I view the next tier to consist of Julius Randle, Noah Vonleh, and Aaron Gordon (in no particular order). However, Randle, Vonleh, and Gordon may be solid prospects I simply believe the top four give a team a potential star caliber player.
The NBA Draft Lottery airs tonight on ESPN at 8pm et. Currently the Jazz have a 33.3% chance of moving up into the top 3, with a 10.4% for the top pick, a 9.4% chance of staying in the 4th spot, and a 58.3% chance of moving down. Those are the percentages for the Jazz before the draft even begins. However, as each selection is made the odds can increase for the Jazz. For example the Suns currently hold the 14th spot and only have a 1.81% chance of moving up into the top three. It is safe to say at this point that is not going to happen, although it could. The lowest ranked team to ever move up was the Magic in 1993, moving up from the 11th spot. More recently the Bulls moved up from the 9th spot to snag the top overall pick, taking Derrick Rose.
Teams moving up that far in the draft is rare, but as the lottery moves along and no teams move up the odds increase for the Jazz. For instance after the 10th pick the odds for the Jazz increase to 35.4% of moving into the top three and 10.5% for the top pick. After the 8th pick the odds for a top three pick jump to 40% for a top three and 12% for the top pick. After the 7th pick the odds increase to 48% for a top three pick and 14% for the top pick. After the 6th pick the odds for a top three pick are 69% and 20% for the top pick. Finally, if no teams moved up after the 5th pick the Jazz have a 78% chance of a top three pick and a 23% chance of acquiring the top pick in the draft.
The odds do not move much after the first few picks (34% for top 3 and 10.5% for top pick after the 12th pick), but they do begin to drastically improve for each pick after the 8th pick has been named. If the Jazz can move up in the draft they will have the opportunity to pick one of the prized players in the draft. If they Jazz move up and whoever they pick pans out who knows what the future will hold for the Jazz as they have several very nice young pieces on their current roster. What they lack is a true number one option. A go-to guy that can score down the stretch when the Jazz need it most. Teams simply do not succeed without star caliber players on the roster, so being in position to draft a potential star is enormous for the future success of the Jazz.
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Ideally many Jazz fans would like to see the Jazz land Parker, given his LDS faith, which most fans take as a player who will not only stay in Utah, but actually fit right into the culture. Parker would give the Jazz the most NBA ready player in the draft, and possibly the best offensive weapon. I would love to see Parker in a Jazz uniform, but I do have to worry about his defensive capabilities. He is a liability on defense. Maybe he can learn to play defense, but defense still and always will win championships, so I am hesitant to proclaim Parker as the guy the Jazz have to take if they land the top pick.
Wiggins has all the potential in the world. Great athlete, high character, but did not dominate the college level like many NBA personnel would have liked to see. At times he even disappeared in key moments, while other times he shined. He is also a very good on ball defender giving him the potential to be a game changer on both ends. Given his potential I would love to see him in a Jazz uniform, but am also hesitant given his lack of consistency.
Embiid came roaring onto the scene this year in college. He, like Wiggins, oozes potential and has been compared to Hakeem Olajuwon. Now I think these comparisons are a bit of a stretch given his limited amount of time playing the game of basketball, but the fact remains the could be the next great big man in the league. However, he too has issues, primarily with his back. Could he end up the next big man with all the potential only to have a career ravaged by injuries (e.g., Greg Odon, Yao Ming, Sam Bowie)?
Exum is a bit of an unknown. He comes from Australia, so NBA executives haven’t had the opportunity to see him as much as other prospects. There is no denying his potential. He is 6’6″ weighed in at 195 lbs. and a 6’10” wingspan to go along with solid athletic ability. His personal workouts will go a long way in teams determining where he will go in the draft, but I can’t see him dropping out of the top 4.
If the unfortunate happens and the Jazz drop at all they will miss out on the four players mentioned above. As frustrating as many Jazz fans would find moving back they can take a little solace in knowing the Jazz will still get a very solid player. I view the next tier to consist of Julius Randle, Noah Vonleh, and Aaron Gordon (in no particular order). However, Randle, Vonleh, and Gordon may be solid prospects I simply believe the top four give a team a potential star caliber player.
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Randle came in with all the potential in the world and even started out the season in the argument for the top overall pick in the draft. However, he had difficulty scoring against long defenders and did not display range on his jump shot. These hurt have hurt his draft stock as the year progressed in addition to his lack of defensive skills. If the Jazz draft Randle they would most likely begin looking to trade Kanter. The question for Randle is do the Jazz improve drastically with Randle as opposed to Kanter? If not, pick someone else, if so then maybe Randle is worth considering.
Vonleh is long ( 7’4″ wingspan), a solid defender, and can shoot. He is also a very good athlete and could be an interesting pick for the Jazz. Given his ability to block shots, and being paired with Favors, the Jazz could potentially be one of the better rim protecting teams in the league. Vonleh came on to the scene later in the year and after the combine in Chicago last week has moved ahead of Randle on some NBA boards.
Gordon may be the best athlete in the entire draft. He posted a 39 inch vertical, which is the third highest ever for a PF, but the thing everyone is talking about is he posted the best shuttle time not just for PF’s, but out of everyone and every position at the combine. He is a tremendous athlete, defender, and rebounder. The problem in his game is he simply cannot shoot the ball as can easily be seen by only making 42% of his free throws.
The speculation about where the Jazz will pick ends tonight when the NBA Draft Lottery takes place. Many Jazz fans will have their eyes glued to the television, with the tension growing as each pick is announced. Hopefully, for Jazz fans, the ping-pong balls bounce in the direction of the Jazz. This draft could be huge for the future of the Jazz and could be the difference from being a good team with a lot of talent, but lacking a star to push them over the top to a potential perennial contender, which could even lead to the Jazz finally acquiring that elusive championship. Only time will tell, but it all starts tonight!